Republicans Set Up Shop in Iowa, Where Few Will Prosper

DES MOINES — There are so many reasons for Republicans to ignore Iowa.

The sliver of the party’s registered voters that turns out on a frigid winter night to caucus for a presidential candidate is smaller than the population of Stamford, Conn., which is about 121,500. Caucus-goers are 99 percent white, and far more likely to be rural and evangelical Christians than Republicans are nationally.

Oh, and their recent record of picking winners is not so good. Just ask President Rick Santorum.

And yet, despite predictions that Republicans would break the costly habit of campaigning in this unrepresentative state, they are trekking to Iowa like never before.

Nearly a dozen 2016 hopefuls are arriving here Saturday for what the political class indelicately terms a “cattle call.” Appropriately, it will be at the Iowa State Fairgrounds, a fabled venue for politicians every August — but cold and barren in March.

The daylong Iowa Ag Summit follows by just six weeks the Iowa Freedom Summit, which drew largely the same cast of characters. Next month brings the Faith and Freedom Coalition Spring Kickoff. Just down the road in June is Joni’s Roast and Ride, a celebration of pork and Harley-Davidsons put on by Senator Joni Ernst, whose election last year thrilled the state and national party and is one reason there is an electricity among Republicans in Iowa.

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Former Gov. Rick Perry of Texas is among those involved in political events in Iowa long before the state’s caucuses. Credit Pete Marovich/European Pressphoto Agency

All for a state whose first-in-the-nation nominating contest will not be held till next Feb. 1.

“This is as early and as aggressive a start to the Republican side of the Iowa caucuses that I have ever seen,” said Jeffrey R. Boeyink, a former chief of staff for Gov. Terry E. Branstad of Iowa.

Steffen Schmidt, a political scientist at Iowa State University who has been studying the caucus for 45 years, said this year’s campaign, with a broad and competitive field, was unusually intense. “Everyone thinks ‘I can beat the odds if I jump in now,

For the state’s large body of strategists, lawn-sign makers, direct-mail scriveners and field organizers, the Iowa land rush has meant full employment.

Candidates who have not yet signed up experienced state directors and other top staff members — Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, this means you — are casting in a nearly fished-out pool.

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Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin is set to attend the daylong Iowa Ag Summit. Credit Joe Skipper/Associated Press

“Most all of the top consultants and staff are taken,” said Chad Olsen, the executive director of the Republican Party of Iowa. “That, plus the large number of campaigns looking for talent, has resulted in a scramble for bodies. Anyone who hasn’t already locked up staff with Iowa experience is going to have a tough time finding people.”

Eyebrows were raised recently when some campaigns hired aides whose glory days were two or three presidential cycles ago. Instead of traveling the state in an R.V., the joke went, those candidates would be riding in a DeLorean.

Even Donald Trump has lined up an Iowa strategist. A bit unexpectedly for the self-proclaimed billionaire, it is the thrifty operative who drove the cash-strapped Mr. Santorum around the state in 2012 in a namesake pickup dubbed “the Chuck Truck.”

The knock on Iowa, especially for Republicans whose appeal is to the establishment “Chamber of Commerce wing” of their party, is that the grass roots here are dominated by social conservatives and Tea Party followers.

Jeb Bush’s chief strategist, Mike Murphy, once half-jokingly called the Iowa caucus a “racket,” because campaigns were seduced into spending so much time and money in a place with such little political payoff. In 2000 when he managed John McCain’s campaign, the candidate all but skipped the state.

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Senator Ted Cruz of Texas is also expected at the summit. Credit Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

But even Mr. Murphy sounded like he had caught the Iowa bug this year. “I would not assume my past is prologue,” he said.

The contenders at the Ag Summit, where each will occupy a hot seat for 20 minutes of quizzing about farm issues, include two former governors, Mr. Bush of Florida and Rick Perry of Texas; two governors, Scott Walker of Wisconsin and Chris Christie of New Jersey; and Senator Ted Cruz of Texas. Many are also planning to fan out to meet-and-greets or fund-raisers.

Caucus-goers know that their intimate exposure to potential presidents is special. They take their responsibility to vet candidates seriously. But they can also be demanding. And they are not shy about offering advice.

“You’ve got to show up and be here often,” Jake Chapman, a young Republican state senator from Adel, said in a Perkins Family Restaurant in West Des Moines. “You’ve got to take every opportunity to come into places like Perkins. You’ve got to establish you can handle grass-roots, retail politics.”

Though Democrats do not face nearly the crush of potential nominees, party strategists in Iowa say they hope that Hillary Rodham Clinton, who seemed to speak mainly before big audiences in Iowa in her loss to Barack Obama in 2008, to campaign now as if she had another race on her hands — but, this time, by walking in parades, meeting with small groups and dropping into cafes like Java Joes in Des Moines.

For Republicans, meanwhile, the very early jockeying risks giving candidates and their still largely unformed campaigns a degree of whiplash.

“The proliferation of forums is forcing candidates to be in Iowa even before they’ve figured out what their campaign plans are,” said Matt Strawn, a former chairman of the state Republican Party.

So if anyone bobbles a question Saturday about grain and livestock markets, or genetically modified organisms, the audience will please cut them some slack.